Corporate events
- Details
This system is introduced for the convenience and safety of our clients.
- Details
The state of California with Silicon valley is one of the largest IT hubs in the world, where a large number of innovative companies with significant investment attractiveness are located. The new representative office of the company will increase the efficiency of the private investment Fund managed by Raison AM, increasing the opportunities for direct negotiations with investment objects and giving direct access to a greater number of promising investment ideas for our clients.
“This strategic decision is an important step for our company. In current situation on the asset management market, only active business development and improvement of its efficiency through the reduction of interaction chains will allow us to gain a leading position in the global market in the medium term. Realizing this, we are actively investing our own funds in development, which is already bearing has a positive impact on our business."- commented Alexander Zaitsev, managing director of Raison Asset Management.
- Details
Element ONE
Issuer: ELEMENT ONE LTD
ISIN Number: VGG299771086
Issue Description: USD CL B SHS
ISO CFI: CICXXX
SP500
In June, the US stock market showed almost neutral dynamics, increasing only by 0.47%. During that, the maximum was $3,227; the minimum was $2,988.
The world demand for the USD also continued to decline in June. In June, the US stock market showed almost neutral dynamics, increasing only by 0.47%. During that, the maximum was $3,227; the minimum was $2,988.
The world demand for the USD also continued to decline in June.
The US Dollar Index Futures was down to 0.93% and closed at 97.35.
The Russian ruble has fallen in price against the dollar.
The USD / RUB currency pair added 1.47%.
The US Dollar Index Futures was down to 0.93% and closed at 97.35.
The Russian ruble has fallen in price against the dollar.
The USD / RUB currency pair added 1.47%.
Labor market
USA, unemployment rate (May): 11,1%
RUS, unemployment rate (May): 6,1%.
World trade
IMF: 2020 forecast for world trade is -11.9%.
The balance sheets of global central banks are collectively just under $22 trillion.
Oil
The oil market showed an upward dynamic. The cost of Brent oil rose by 11.53% - from $35.21 to $39.27.
OPEC retained its forecast for a drop in global oil demand in 2020 at 9.1 million barrels per day.
OPEC also retained its forecast for a fall in oil production in the United States in 2020 by 1.13 million – around 11.1 million barrels per day.
Russia: oil production from June 1st to June 28th = 8.52 million barrels per day (quota - 8.49 million).
Norway has no plans to cut oil production
Sanctions
• The United States announced new sanctions against Syria.• Trump signed into law sanctions against Chinese officials for actions against Hong Kong; China plans countermeasures.
• The European Union has extended the sanctions on Crimea for another year.
Trade wars
• US Treasury Secretary Stephen Mnuchin does not rule out a complete break in economic relations with China.• The US is imposing tariffs on aluminum from Canada.
• India plans to introduce tariffs on Chinese goods.
• The United States has tightened restrictions on technology exports to Russia.
Geopolitics
• Yemen army reports a massive attack on Saudi Arabia.• Russia continues to strengthen the western grouping of forces in response to the fact that NATO countries are strengthening their air defense and missile defense systems.
• China is deploying troops to the border with India. In Delhi, soldiers were allowed to shoot the Chinese to kill.
Crisis
The Fed continues to print money to save the stock market. Trump approves the introduction of a new package of support for the US economy, which could go to Congress in July.The Fed plans to expand its credit program for non-profit organizations.
Since the beginning of 2020, large companies in the United States have filed 111 bankruptcy claims.
Morgan Stanley: The US federal budget is facing the highest deficit since 1943.
JPMorgan: The current recession is the deepest and shortest in 100 years.
Comments from the officials
• Jerome Powell, Fed Chairman:1) huge uncertainty about the speed of economic recovery;
2) we will use all the tools to save the economy;
3) low rates will persist for an extended period.
• Donald Trump, President of the United States:
There should be negative rates in the United States.
• Larry Kudlow, White House Economic Advisor:
All indicators speak of a V-shaped US economic recovery.
Gold
In June, the price of gold increased by 2.90% - from $1,749.8 to $1,800.5.
The overall commodity market, represented by the Invesco DB Commodity Index Tracking Fund (ETF), rose by 4.94%, from 11.73 to 12.31.
COVID-19
In June, the number of infections increased worldwide as restrictions were lifted.The head of WHO: the worst is yet to come, the global growth of infections is accelerating, we expect a vaccine by the end of 2021.
Element ONE Fund
In June, public ideas of the fund analysts showed excellent returns.On June 3, with a result of 30.67%, the shares of Restaurant Brands International Inc. (NYSE: QSR) were partially sold.
On June 5,Disney (NYSE:DIS) shares reached a target price of $125. The final result was 23.76%
On June 5, after the stop loss was set at NOK 450,Salmar (OSL: SALM). shares were liquidated. The yield was + 0.65%.
At the end of the month, the Breakwave Dry Bulk Shipping (NYSE:BDRY) exchange-traded fund for freight showed a result of more than + 46%, third of the positions were closed.
The positive results allowed our team to rise on the invest-idei.ru analyst rating. Raison Asset Management is tied for 5th place with Amaday by Raison.
Despite the excellent performance of individual ideas and public trading, the fund's shares showed negative dynamics in June, closing the month at $1,605.03, losing 1.97%.
We are worried about the increase in the total number of infected with COVID-19 and are actively hedging positions, as we believe that even the first wave of the pandemic is not over yet. In the current conditions of increased volatility, the cost of risk reduction is quite high, which affects the final profitability.
- Details
Element ONE
Issuer: ELEMENT ONE LTD
ISIN Number: VGG299771086
Issue Description: USD CL B SHS
ISO CFI: CICXXX
SP500
In May, optimistic mood prevailed in the markets against the backdrop of the incentive measures taken and the gradual release from quarantine. The SP500 index continued to grow, rising 6.35%. At the end of the month, the price of the index was $3061 - this corresponds to the level of November 1st, 2019. The index without correction rose from the March low, showing a V-shaped recovery.
Global demand for the dollar in May continued to decline. The US Dollar Index Futures was down 0.8% and closed at $98.34.
The Russian Ruble strengthened. The USD/RUB currency pair decreased by 5.70%.
Central Bank Rates:
Fed: 0.25% (PRE 0 - 0.25%). At the meeting on 10.06.2020, the regulator left the key rate unchanged. ECB: 0% (PRED 0 - 0%). The next meeting was on July 16, 2020. The Central Bank of the Russian Federation: 5.50% (PRED 6%). The Central Bank of the Russian Federation admits a reduction of the key rate at the next meetings. Next meeting 06/19/2020
GDP
USA (q/q): -5%.
Eurozone (q/q): -3,6%.
Labour market
USA, unemployment rate (May): 13,3%.
Russia, unemployment rate (May): 5,8%.
Crisis
• Japan approved a $1.1 trillion economic support package;• The EU plans to create a €300 billion bankruptcy protection fund for companies;
• The authorities of the Russian Federation are preparing a package of economic support of 8 trillion rubles;
Wars
• Trade wars are on the escalation stage. The United States may introduce new duties on goods from China, but Trump does not plan to exit phase 1 on a trade deal. On top of that, the United States does not plan to accept the new status of Hong Kong. China, in turn, is considering the possibility of trade diversification due to unfriendly US behavior.
• The US plans to end all relations with the WHO.
The oil market showed strong growth, increasing by 86.24% - from $19.04 to $35.46.
World oil reserves (including oil in transit) began to decline.
In May, the price of yellow metal rose 3.44%, rising from $1,693.5 to $1,751.7.
The total commodity market, represented by the ETF DBC (Invesco DB Commodity Index Tracking Fund), grew by 8.97%, increasing from 10.81 to 11.78.
• Williams: measures taken by world Central Banks helped. Need more fiscal stimulation.
• Bullard (Fed): longer quarantine restrictions can cause long-term and deep damage to the US economy.
• Kudlow: we see many signs of economic recovery, Q3 2020 may show the fastest growth in US GDP in history.
• SI: China will increase readiness for military clashes.
• Kuroda: The Central Bank of Japan is ready to mitigate monetary policy in all possible ways: to reduce the rate, increase the purchase of ETFs, increase lending programs, and come up with new support measures.
• Merkel: sanctions against the Russian Federation must be respected.
• The US plans to end all relations with the WHO.
World trade is setting anti-records.
Oil
The oil market showed strong growth, increasing by 86.24% - from $19.04 to $35.46.World oil reserves (including oil in transit) began to decline.Gold
In May, the price of yellow metal rose 3.44%, rising from $1,693.5 to $1,751.7.The total commodity market, represented by the ETF DBC (Invesco DB Commodity Index Tracking Fund), grew by 8.97%, increasing from 10.81 to 11.78.
Comments from officials
• Powell: the current balance of the Fed is not dangerous (recall, in May, the balance exceeded $7 trillion).• Williams: measures taken by world Central Banks helped. Need more fiscal stimulation.
• Bullard (Fed): longer quarantine restrictions can cause long-term and deep damage to the US economy.
• Kudlow: we see many signs of economic recovery, Q3 2020 may show the fastest growth in US GDP in history.
• SI: China will increase readiness for military clashes.
• Kuroda: The Central Bank of Japan is ready to mitigate monetary policy in all possible ways: to reduce the rate, increase the purchase of ETFs, increase lending programs, and come up with new support measures.
• Merkel: sanctions against the Russian Federation must be respected.
Change in portfolio positions
The value of the fund's stock increased by $104.17 (+ 6.79%) and amounted to $ 1637.35. In May, we added VEON LTD (NASDAQ: VEON) at a price of 1.53 to the portfolio of a communications company, mainly operating under the brand Beeline. In the near future, we will publish a review of the company on our website. Disney (NYSE:DIS) and Restaurant Brands International (NYSE:QSR) showed positive dynamics in May and closed in early June with a result of + 23.76% and + 30.67%. In addition, on June 5th, with a small increase, a position was closed on the shares of Salmar (OSL:SALM). The company canceled the payment of dividends in March this year, which forced us to revise the prospects of profitability for this asset.- Details
Recommendations
-
24.08.2020Gilead Sciences, Inc.
-
23.04.2020Bet on the stream. Disney +
-
22.04.2020Burger King: Crown and Virus
Corporate events
-
08.09.2020New authorization system
-
07.09.2020Closer to Silicon valley: Raison AM is opening representative office in San Francisco
-
22.07.2020Element ONE. June 2020 results